Early Projections of the WNBA Season
With the draft officially in the books, we are only one month out from the start of the 2025 WNBA season. We saw another great college class make their ascension to the next level. Those who made multiple picks definitely got better. Before we get into how the season will shake out, let's take a look the draft and how this will help the cause of the drafting teams.
Talk about Capitalizing
I don't think it's any secret that there is one team that absolutely kicked butt in the first round, and that would be the Washington Mystics. With the third, fourth, and sixth pick in the first round, they were able to draft one of everything. Washington took arguably the best center off the board in Sonia Citron, arguably the best all around post player in Kiki Iriafen, and one of the best guards in the class in Georgia Amoore. This is going to be a huge team that will be a matchup nightmare for everybody. Washington couldn't overcome a terrible start and came up one game short of making the playoffs last year. This young core is shaping out to be one of the best in the league and should easily put them in playoff position right off the hop.
Amore has the starting track at that first guard spot without question, but Lucy Olson who was taken in the second round has the talent to get the second spot or a rotational bid. But as we know, chances making the roster significantly drop if you are taken outside the first round.
Seattle Pivots
With the shocking decision of Olivia Miles going back to college, the Storm had to adjust. Instead of taking a guard just because of need, they took the best player available in Dominique Malonga from France. She has a lot of Kristaps Porzingis in her game. It'll be interesting to see if she plays forward or center with Ezi Magbegor taking the other slot.
Regarding the guard spot, a large hole needs to be filled after the departure of Jewell Lloyd. Seattle didn't have a second round pick so they took three guards in the third round. They are not all making the team. Serena Sundell was taken first. With her 47% shooting percentage and 12 points per game, I think she has the early advantage.
Get Paige Tex Mex
Dallas had one heck of an offseason and just when you thought it couldn't get better, it did. Paige Bueckers was taken first overall which was followed up by drafting Aziaha James, Madison Scott, JJ Quinerly, and Aaronette Vonleh. The Wings have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to talent, so some difficult decisions will have to be made.
They are going to be so fun to watch this year and I'm so happy Curt Miller is still getting opportunities in this league. His time as a coach is probably over, but he's looking like the Ws version of what Brad Steven has become with the Celtics already.
A Proven Winner Slips
I don't know about you, but I'm honestly shocked Hailey Van Lith slipped to the end of the first round and that LA did not take her. But hey, the loss is Chicago's gain. The Sky get a dynamic young guard who took three colleges to the elite eight who can take the offense to the next level.
The chemistry with Angel Reese is automatic from their time together at LSU. Get ready for HVL to drop some dimes on the pick and roll to Reese, and in return some screens set by Reese to get her teammate some good driving lanes. Huge win for everyone involved.
A Fresh Start in CT
The Sun have a whole lot of work to do this season. I've been saying for a few years now that a step back was coming for this franchise, I think I'm finally going to be right. This is the first time in WNBA or NBA history where a playoff team lost every starter in the offseason. The Sun made three picks and got a trio of solid players with Aneesah Morrow, Saniya Rivers, and Rayah Marshall. This group will have some growing pains.
Adding Depth
The Indiana Fever brought in the big guns in free agency. It's clear who the starting and main rotational players are going to be. The biggest issue for them last year was depth. If anyone on the roster went down for an extended period of time, oh lord have mercy it would not have gone well. The additions of Makayla Timpson and Bree Hall (Aliyah Boston very much approved being reunited with her college teammate), and even Yvonne Ejim add good punches off the bench.
The Minnesota Lynx also added three new faces to fill the holes of a few departures in the offseason. But don't get it twisted, a Cheryl Reeve coached team is a very hard one to make especially as a second or third round pick. They each will have an uphill battle ahead of them. On the somewhat bright side, there is no guarantee if Anastasiia Olari Kosu will come over right away improving the chances of Dalayah Daniels and Aubrey Griffin potentially.
Offense in a Hurry
The LA Sparks were obviously watching the NCAA tournament and liked what they saw from the 45 point performance from Sarah Ashlee Barker in that double OT game. While averaging 11 points per game, she showed in late game situations it'll be a tough decision either to double her or Kelsey Plum down the stretch.
Same idea for the Atlanta Dream pairing Te-Hina Paopao with Rhyne Howard. Both are SEC players who can get hot quick. This new Atlanta system means three point shooting so you'll need both to get involved early.
First Draft in the Books
Welcome officially now to the Golden State Valkyries. With the addition of first round pick Juste Joycte, that is now a whopping 10 international players on their roster. They rounded out the draft with Shyanne Sellers, and the kind of player you love to root for in Kaitlyn Chen. Chen was formerly the Ivy League player of the year at Princeton and won a title in her last year with UConn. While she did declare for the draft, she was mainly there to support Bueckers. She got her name called from the stands. By all accounts, this is a likeable player with a solid skillset. Her Princeton teammates came to Tampa to cheer her on and her Connecticut teammates erupted when she was picked. Here's hoping she makes the roster or gets an opportunity elsewhere.
Two, One, None
You can't fool me with social media content Vegas, based on the track record there is little to no chance these draft picks are on the roster in the next few weeks. The Aces like vets, proven talents and proven winners. Aaliyah Nye and Harmoni Turner (shout out to the folks at Harvard) are obviously incredibly talented players. But this is not the right situation for them.
The New York Liberty had a use it or lose it pick and ended the draft by taking a flyer on Adja Kane from France. Lastly for the Phoenix Mercury it was smoke them if you got them. No picks, no attempts to get into any of the rounds, crickets. They opted to forgo the draft content with who they have.
Never to Early
I don't do this often, but I wanted to look ahead to the playoffs and see if we can get any predictions right. As you know, eight teams will still get in but that means five are now going to sit the fall out. Round one best of three, round two best of five, and finally the battle for it all will go seven rounds. I will say very confidently that New York and Vegas will be the two best teams competing for the top spot. I give the nod to the Liberty as the defending champs for the top seed and Vegas fitting in at the two. I've learned over the years not to doubt a Cheryl Reeve coached team and think they will comfortably slide into the three seed.
This is where things will get interesting. The Fever are a legit contender with a powerful core of weapons. I see them claiming the four seed. Adding veterans to the young group with another year of experience gives Indy a secret sauce to continue on the upward trajectory. So, which team will fall just short of a top seed and home court advantage? I think it's the Mercury. Phoenix has invested a lot of resources in the past to build super teams and it hasn't really worked out, and that's why I'm skeptical of this iteration and their chances. They have a lot of talent, but can the older players hold up or will they run out of gas? Because of overall experience, I like them just a little bit more than some of the newer younger groups.
That leaves three playoff spots left and this means really talented rosters may just miss out. Washington will be in the playoffs this year as the six seed. I see them having the same type of year Fever had last year, where they will win a good amount of games but lose some tight ones. The seven seed I think will go to Dallas for the sole reason that I feel early on it will take some time for this new group to gel together, but they will figure it out. The last spot will go to a team that will get hot at the right time and I'm giving that vote of confidence to the Sparks. Cameron Brink will miss a little time at the start and it may take her a little bit to find her groove again which may cause them to start slow. I think they will peak at the right time and sneak in the last couple of weeks.
Five out
For this exercise, this means the five teams out of the playoff picture are Golden State, Connecticut, Seattle, Atlanta, and Chicago. I know some folks might disagree with this. But let me explain my logic here. In the case of the Valkyries and the Sun, I just don't think they have the fire power to compete right now. The Sun are in a rebuild that they kept putting off and the Valkyries need time to develop who they are.
The Storm, Dream, and Sky I think are all in the same boat. They are going to be very good at playing defense, rebounding, operating in the post and crashing the glass with authority and finesse. They'll be able to buy extra possessions. But that can only get you so far. When these teams play elite shooting teams who can drop bombs from three, the protecting the paint plan is negated. As of right now, they don't have enough to reciprocate and get back in the game. Can they get there? Yes. Can the draftees help? Of course. Do I think now in April that they can do it no questions asked? Not quite yet.
Now, I could be completely wrong here and I'm not afraid to admit that. We really don't know what's going to happen especially since now more than ever there is so much parody in the league again. That in part is because of the young phenoms coming up through the college ranks. The W is in a great place in terms of the talent pool. This class was great, last years class was great, and the next two might be even better if that's possible.
To round out the five teams that may not make it discussion, it's safe to say Lauren Betts will in all likelihood be considered the top player in the next draft. She's amazing. Golden State and Connecticut need her the most. The other three teams are covered when it comes to the post players. Golden State needs that face of the franchise who is an absolutely dynamic player on the inside. Connecticut needs someone who they can build around to get them back on track.
All love and respect to the legend Tina Charles, but she is not the long term answer at center. She at this point is the bridge. Both teams are off to a good start, but someone like Betts can fast track everything. Look at how the Aces taking A'ja Wilson turned out - pretty well. If either of these two teams don't end up getting the top pick, there better be a hefty ransom for them to offer to move up and get her.
Final Thoughts
Every team right now has a bright future. It’s going to come down to which team can put their players, especially the younger ones in position to succeed right away. Next year there will be even more chances for the college class with the Toronto Tempo and the name still TBD Portland franchise. Reports say the Cleveland Rockers will be resurrected as the fourth and final expansion team of the group of four at the earliest for the 2028 season, but maybe later if they are not ready to go. They have the barn already assuming they will share the space with the Cavaliers. After that, there will likely be a long wait for more expansion as the bid for the Tennessee Summit fell short and talks to bring back some of the original franchises are still ongoing.
If Tennessee can get approval and teams like Houston, Detroit, Tulsa, and others can get back in the fold, it will be the closest the league has been to the original large number of teams. Stock of women’s basketball is rising and the high school recruiting class of 2020, regarded as the class that will save the league, have now gone pro. The top five players in the class were responsible for creating so much excitement and buzz, and now they are each first round picks. Bueckers, Reese, Brink, Caitlin Clark and Camilla Cardoso. Next year the collective bargaining agreement will be up and we have to hope that the league will come to the negotiating table in good faith and ready to get the players what they deserve. It’s been 29 years, and what better way to ring in year 30 then to set a new standard. The time is now.