Playoff Preview Version 1 - The 12 Strongest Teams in the Country
At long last, the highly anticipated 12 team college football playoff is upon us. After years of controversial picks in the four team format where on so many occasions the selection committee got it wrong, this is the closest we’ve had to the right mix of teams. Alabama at 9-3 and Miami at 11-2 were named the first two teams out, meaning they got consideration but the body of work wasn’t enough. We knew it was going to happen, but some were hoping that Army, who is now 12-1 would get consideration, but they did not. Despite winning a conference title and only having one loss, a 11-1 independent Notre Dame team gets the nod instead. Pretty stupid if you ask me, but what do I know? Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State got ranked 1-4 in that order and after winning their conferences, received the automatic qualifier and a first round bye. Clemson snuck out a win in their conference championship as well so they also get in, but they slide in as the 12 seed due to having a lower ranking than the other four conference winners. Whose playing who and what’s on the line? Let’s break it all down.
#5 Texas vs #12 Clemson
Host team - Texas
Records - Texas 11-2, Clemson 10-3
Winner plays - #4 Arizona State
Next game - Peach Bowl
Clemson got lucky, really lucky. Miami had no business dropping the two games that they did. But even with the loss to South Carolina, Clemson by way of Miami losing got into the ACC championship game and beat SMU. Quarterback Cade Kulbnik has improved leaps and bounds and is a large reason why they are in this position. He’s thrown for 33 TDs and only five picks while also being an effective runner. The bye would have really helped their power running back Phil Mafah who has a banged up shoulder. His counterpart Jay Haynes does not look like he will be able to play moving forward. That means the pass game will be more important. Antonio Williams (838 yards, 10 TDs) and Bryant Wesco Jr (678 yards, 5 TDs) are the leading receivers. They are very good, but they aren’t the elite weapons they’ve had in the past. Tight end Jake Briningstool will need to step up big time.
For Texas, don’t be surprised if Quinn Ewers is relieved by Arch Manning more often. Ewers has been a good quarterback but he is not healthy right now. He is wearing a special brace on his ankle and if it weren’t for that, he would not be able to play. Manning (yes, he’s related to the famous ones) has come in as a running threat which is irony at it’s finest since his uncles couldn’t move at all. But when he did have to fill in, he showed he’s just as good of a thrower too. Clemson’s defense will have to force Texas to run the ball and shut down receiver Matthew Golden and tight end Gunnar Helm, their top targets. But don’t sleep on Isaiah Bond, who has played in big games before at Alabama. Clemson will need to make Ewers uncomfortable and make him scramble. However, Clemson can’t afford any bad throws otherwise you can expect Jahdae Barron with his five interceptions to make them pay. Clemson has not matched up well against the SEC this year losing to Georgia week one and South Carolina during rivalry week. I don’t think the Tigers have enough to get this done, so I’m predicting the Longhorns smoke them at home.
#8 Ohio State vs #9 Tennessee
Host team - Ohio State
Records - both 10-2
Winner plays - #1 Oregon
Next game - Rose Bowl
The stars of the show again are some dynamic receivers, which they have pumped out quite a few of these last few years. Jeremiah Smith came close to hitting 1,000 yards on the season and if you double team him, his running mate Emeka Egbuka will torch your secondary. They couldn’t do it without the well traveled transfer QB Will Howard who led the BIG10 in passing touchdowns with 27. Speaking to the Vols when I say this, DO NOT play single man coverage on these guys all game long. If you do you are asking for trouble. You need to force Howard into making mistakes, which is easier said than done but possible. They can always pivot to the running game if the looks aren’t there with two good runners in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.
Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava ( I dare you to try and say that) has 19 passing touchdowns on the year. He doesn’t run much because he has Dylan Sampson in the backfield, and he’s run for over 1400 yards this season. He is the engine. Ohio State needs to force this young quarterback to throw the ball. Dont’e Thornton Jr, Bru McCoy, and Squirrel White haven’t done much compared to other top three receivers. If Ohio State can get out to a quick 20 or 30 point lead, I don’t think the Vols can recover. Give me Ohio State in this matchup.
#9 Penn State vs #11 SMU
Host team - Penn State
Records - both 11-2
Winner plays - #3 Boise State
Next game - Fiesta Bowl
A Texas team in the Atlantic Coast Conference, makes no sense. But they have played very well. Kevin Jennings in his first year as a power conference quarterback has done a good job. He just passed the 3,000 yard passing mark and is also the second leading rusher on the team with 379 yards and five touchdowns. The Mustangs scored their first touchdown on a quarterback run play and let me tell you, KJ can move it. Usually the play is called quarterback power, but this one should be called quarterback roadrunner. Check out how he made out running the Clemson defense look easy by clicking here. He led quite the comeback and played the second half of his life only to fall short by a field goal. It was an admirable effort nonetheless. The numbers by the receivers in terms of yardage don’t jump out at you, the average per catch do. Roderick Daniels Jr with 15.8, Key’Shawn Smith with 16.5, and Moochie Dixon with 18.9. SMU also enters the playoff with a 1,000 yard rusher in Brashard Smith. Head coach Rhett Lashlee was the offensive coordinator at Miami before taking this gig and got Smith to come over with him and converted him from receiver to running back. He put up the most yards in a season for the school since a guy named Eric Dickerson with the Pony Express in 1982. If you know the name, you know how impressive that is. So, Penn State needs to shut him down, rip at the ball when Jennings carries it, and be disciplined in coverage to avoid getting burned.
Let’s get into the home team now. Drew Allar is one of the best young QBs in the country. He doesn’t turn the ball over a lot, he can throw and run, this kid is going to be a star in a couple years. New offensive coordinator and childhood Penn State fan Andy Kotelnicki has done a phenomenal job with this offense. The creativity is off the charts, it’s up there with the Kansas City Chiefs. To that point, the best weapon in America is their tight end Tyler Warren. He has over 1,000 yards receiving, a passing touchdown, and four rushing touchdowns. He lines up everywhere. We’ll talk about him more in a later article. Penn State also has the running back duo of Nic Singeleton and Kaytron Allen, who each have over 800 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs combined. They have also have a few receiving touchdowns. Running back and linebacker have been a bright spot developmental wise for Penn State and they have an established pipeline to the pros. Jaylen Reed will make a play on defense, it’s a matter of when not if. He leads the team with 79 tackles and three picks. I feel confident that Penn State gets the job done at home in Happy Valley and puts the ponies back in the stable.
#7 Notre Dame vs #10 Indiana
Host team - Notre Dame
Records - both 11-1
Winner plays - #2 Georgia
Next game - Sugar Bowl
I think this is the best matchup and the most intriguing game. I hope I don’t jinx it by saying that. I didn’t have the battle for the Hoosier State on my college football bingo card this year. But hey, Bloomington against South Bend, I am here for it. Before you start screaming about the Irish and how the should join the conference, I completely agree. The schedule was a weak one for them with the lone loss coming against Northern Illinois. I took that in eating a porterhouse steak on my birthday and boy was that a breath of fresh air. The loss, not the steak. But the steak was very good too. Anyway, Notre Dame rebounded better than anyone could have anticipated. Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard is living his dream playing for the Irish. His passing numbers aren’t as impressive as some of the other QBs in the field, but he will kill you on the ground. He’s the second leading rusher on the team with 721 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. That’s one behind Jeremiyah Love who leads the team in rushing yards with 949. The passing attack, it’s not super. Beaux Collins leads them with 427 yards and only two touchdowns. Similar to the previous matchup discussion, stop the run, rip the ball out, don’t let those receivers get behind you.
Indiana has been an amazing story and thank the football gods that Curt Cignetti has a moral compass and has agreed to stay and sign an extension with the team. A rarity these days. This is a guy who worked for Nick Saban at Alabama and left to be a division two head coach basically starting over. He worked his way back up and now the only loss his group has on the year is against Ohio State. I am so glad they did not get overlooked and got a spot. Kurtis Rourke, brother of CFL quarterback Nathan Rourke, showed us it runs in the family. 2,827 yards with 27 touchdowns and only four interceptions. This is a balanced attack on offense with backs Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton combining for 22 rushing touchdowns and having two big play receivers in Elijah Sarrat and Omar Cooper Jr, who is averaging 21 yards a catch. 21 yards! Jack Kizer will try to stuff the run for the Irish and Xavier Watts will be waiting for Rourke to mess up. He has five interceptions and ran one back against USC. This is a close one to call, but like the Rockettes in a Macy’s parade I think this will come down to kicking. I’m calling the upset. Indiana over Notre Dame by a field goal either at the end of regulation or early in overtime.
I’ve got two more articles on tap with a major milestone on the way. Stay tuned for what we have coming up next as I hope to have them out in the next few days.