Playoff Preview Version 2 - New Years Bowling
We went three out of four in our first round predictions. The takeaways are home field without question matters, and Notre Dame is a whole lot better than I thought they were….oops. But we move on. Next round baby, the quarterfinals. Indiana, SMU, Clemson, and Tennessee all bow out in the first round. Credit to Clemson for giving Texas a game. The others were pretty convincing beatdowns, don’t let the Notre Dame score fool you. If you haven’t heard, these next games will be played in iconic bowl venues. Four of the New Year Six will be used here. The Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl (my personal favorite), Fiesta Bowl, and Sugar Bowl. Remember that Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State earned the top four seeds and won their conference, which is why they received first round byes. They are rested and ready. But these next games won’t a slam dunk, it gets interesting now. What did we learn from the first round? How will that impact the rest of the field? Let’s break it all down.
#5 Texas vs #4 Arizona State
Records - Texas 12-2, Arizona State 11-2
Bowl game - Peach Bowl, Atlanta GA
Date and Time - New Years Day, 1pm
Texas came out of their first game banged up losing three key players to injury. It is unclear what the status of those players will be. On top of that, top target Isiah Bond did not play and we don’t know if he’ll be ready either. Running back Quintrevion Wisner left the game unable to return, but Jaydon Blue carried the load for 146 yards and two scores. The Longhorns will be expected to go with a heavy running attack again to take the pressure of Quinn Ewers who is still not quite 100% but still looked good against the Tigers. Arizona State will need to sell out to stop the run regardless if Wisner plays or not, and make sure Gunnar Helm doesn’t run rampant like he did in the first round - six catches for 77 yards and a TD. If Bond is ready to go by then, watch out for him too.
Arizona State was predicted to finish dead last in the new look Big 12 and ended up kicking Iowa State to the curb in the conference championship game. What head coach Kenny Dillingham has done in two years is nothing short of incredible. The engine of the offense is one of the best running backs in country, Cam Skatabo. He finished fifth in the Heisman voting and is one of the most improved players in the country. Skatabo finished with 1,568 rushing yards, 506 receiving yards, and 22 total touchdowns. Texas, don’t let him get hot. ASU leading receiver Jordyn Tyson is done for the year which will make this ten times harder. The next highest total by a receiver was just over 300 yards. Sorry Sundevil fans, but this Cinderella story looks to be coming to an end. Give me Texas in this one.
#8 Ohio State vs #1 Oregon
Records - Ohio State 11-2, Oregon 13-0
Bowl Game - Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Date and time - New Years Day, 5pm
Okay let’s just call it what it is. Tennessee did everything wrong on defense and Ohio State took them to the wood shed. Left Jeremiah Smith one on one, told them not to do that. Told them to stop the run, nope didn’t do that either. Clearly they did not read the article. Smith torched the Vols secondary to the tune of six catches, 103 yards, and two touchdowns. Trevion Henderson ran for two touchdowns as did Quinshon Judkins. Oregon cannot let that happen.
Oregon became the number one team in the country after Texas lost to Georgia, and they didn’t look back. Dillon Gabriel threw for over 3500 yards and created a balanced passing attack with a lot of mouths to feed. The top four targets on the Ducks averaged more than 10 yards per catch. Tez Johnson averaged 11.1 yards while collecting 866 and 10 touchdowns. Evan Stewart had 12.8 per catch, 613, and five touchdowns. Traeshon Holden got into the mix with 15.8 per catch, 602 yards with three touchdowns, and not to be outdone Terrance Ferguson averaged 13.7 with 520 yards and three scores. Did I mention Jordan James ran for over 1200 yards and 15 TDs to boot? This a complete team and that includes defense. Bryce Boettcher is the heart and soul of the defense who will have to take that run game head on. They gave Buckeye QB Will Howard fits the first time they played, and I think they can do it again. I’m not about to bet against the top team in the country and if I’m wrong, so be it. I am pretty confident Oregon gets it done. The winner of this game will play either Arizona State or Texas.
#6 Penn State vs #3 Boise State
Records - Penn State 12-2, Boise State 12-1
Bowl Game - Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ
Date and time - New Years Eve, 7:30pm
SMU ran into the Penn State buzzsaw. Props to the fans for showing in for a white out in the frigid cold. The Nittany Lions defense picked up SMU three times and took two of them back for touchdowns. Tony Rojas had one interception, and Dominic DeLuca got two. They each brought one back for points. Both running backs feasted and combined for 140 yards and three touchdowns. Drew Allar didn’t need to do much in the first game, but he’ll need to pick it up moving forward. It won’t be that easy again.
Now to Boise State. Ashton Jeanty got robbed of the Heisman. The Broncos want blood. You gave the best back in the country extra time to rest and stew over finishing second. I’m willing to bet every dollar I have that he has the best game of his life. But he’s not alone. Broncos QB Maddux Madsen had a great year. He threw for over 2700 yards and only three picks. The passing attack has been solid. The top targets are receiver Cameron Camper and tight end Matt Lauter. There aren’t a lot passing touchdowns in this offense, but because of Jeanty the Broncos can use play action to their advantage and the pass catchers and get open for big plays. Camper averaged 15 yards per catch, and none of the regular weapons averaged less than 12. The defense will be challenged. It’s the best tight end they’ve seen in Tyler Warren and the best set of running backs. Can they focus enough on them to shut them down, but not over emphasize to the point where another talented receiver for Penn State can burn them. I’ve mentioned Omari Evans before, and despite no catches against SMU my eye will be on him again. Boise State has had success in this game before. They are position to do so again and ring in 2025 with a victory.
#7 Notre Dame vs #2 Georgia
Records - Georgia 11-2, Notre Dame 12-1
Bowl game - Sugar Bowl, New Orleans LA
Date and time - New Years day, 8pm
Once Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love ripped off a 98 yard touchdown run, you knew Indiana was going to have a long night. If you didn’t see it you can click here. Love didn’t need many touches to pick up 126 total yards in South Bend. He will be the main feature again against the SEC champs. The passing game has evolved as the season has gone on and Riley Leonard threw for 201 yards and a TD in round one. He also picked up his 25th rushing touchdown, a new school record for a quarterback. On defense Xavier Watts got another interception and I’m calling it now, I think he gets another one. Jack Kizer who we talked about before will clog the running lanes again for a team this will be focusing way more on the ground attack. Allow me to explain why.
Big development for Georgia as quarterback Carson Beck is NOT expected to play. This is a huge loss after Beck injured his elbow against Texas in the SEC championship game. Beck threw for 3,485 yards. Gunnar Stockton slides in who is mostly known for running. He’s barely played all year, there is no way he is ready for this. The good news is Trevor Etienne should be a full go and the Bulldogs will need every thing he can give them on the ground. Same with Nate Frazier. The passing game will need to be simplified for Stockton and it hasn’t been as good compared to years past. Arian Smith, Dominic Lovett, Dillon Bell, and Lawson Luckie are the top targets and none of them have double digit touchdowns. The defense will have their hands full and they will have to work more than they are used to. Malaki Starks leads the team in tackles with 73. Georgia has been great on defense for a while now, but they will get run down with the increase usage. Indiana couldn’t stop them and they were one of the best against the run. I think Georgia is in trouble. I’m taking the upset. Notre Dame wins this one and takes on either Penn State or Boise State.